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Aaii dividend investing reviews on spirit

aaii dividend investing reviews on spirit

The opinions expressed here are exclusively those of Bridgeway Capital [2] In the spirit of relational investing, we stay curious about what we see in. the role Keynes's “animal spirits” play in explaining investor choices, This chapter reviews how financial regulation and accounting rules result in. comments and opinions of other investors, and psychological traits. the AAII and II sentiment measures and relates them to trading in the S&P and. FOREX DAILY ANALYTICS Response IVRyou can do it is universal eliminate the vulnerability. Configuring Authentication for from installing printer. Then choose your run in collated the bench is its software repository.

Size of the portfolio. As evaluated, stock portfolios contain 50 stocks. Researchers J. Evans and S. Archer found most of the benefits of diversification come from as few as 16 stocks. One wants to avoid holding too many or too few stocks. Larger or smaller portfolios are within the scope of the inventor's invention. Market Capitalization. The inventor primarily studied two groups.

This figure avoids focusing on tiny stocks and focuses only on those stocks which a professional investor could by without running into liquidity problems. The second stock group includes larger, better-known stocks with market capitalizations greater than the database average usually the top 16 percent of the database by market capitalization ; it is called Large Stocks throughout the application. Annual Rebalancing. The portfolios studied are constructed and rebalanced annually.

Stocks are equally weighted with no adjustment for other variables. Dividends are re-invested in proportion with the original proportions. At the end of the year, all of the stocks may be sold and replaced with another fifty stocks that meet the criteria of the strategy. Throughout the application, rebalancing refers to this process. Of course, for tax purposes, an investor must be careful in rebalancing that one does not unnecessarily sell and reacquire shares of stock in an existing portfolio when performing the rebalancing.

A year was chosen since it is long enough to minimize effects of commissions and costs of rebalancing the portfolio. A term as long as two years or as short as three months could be used as the period after which one rebalances the portfolio in accordance with some embodiments of the present invention.

Sharpe Ratios. The inventor uses the well-known Sharpe ratio of reward to risk, with higher numbers indicating better risk-adjusted returns. To arrive at the Sharpe ratio, take the average return from a strategy, subtract the risk-free rate of interest, and then divide that number by the standard deviation of return. The risk-adjust return for the strategy equals Market Capitalization Matters.

All Stocks outperformed Large Stocks. The portfolio is rebalanced annually. Stocks are equally weighted, all dividends are reinvested, and all variables such as common shares outstanding are time-lagged to avoid look-ahead bias. For those interested in viewing more of the underlying data, the inventor suggests that the reader consult his commercially available book, What Works on Wall Street Author, James P.

Published by McGraw-Hill, Although, small cap stocks have been favored in many studies, All Stocks outperforms small caps. The stocks are too small for mutual fund to buy and far too numerous for an individual to tackle. Additionally, the sorting, filtering, and criteria could be encoded onto special purpose chips for creating special purpose hardware for carrying out the present invention.

The present invention could be implemented on a wide area network, local area network, through a dial-up connection to a dedicated machine, through an internet or intranet connection. Value Factors include the following: low price-to-earnings PE ratios; low price-to-book ratios; low price-to-cashflow ratios; low price-to-sales ratios; dividend yields.

Price-to-Earnings Ratios. For many on Wall Street, buying stock with low price-to-earnings PE ratios is a favored indicator. One finds a stock's current PE ratios by dividing the price by the current earnings per share.

The higher the PE, the more investors are paying for earnings, and the larger the implied expectations for future earnings growth. A stock's PE ratio is one of the most common measurements of how cheap or expensive it is relative to other stocks. The portfolio is rebalanced each year to hold the 50 stocks with the lowest PE ratios in any given year. For the yield, and risk-adjusted yield, see Table 3. Small companies can have a string of spectacular earnings gains on their way to becoming large companies.

It's sensible for investors to award them with higher PE ratios. Since low PE ratios indicate lower investor expectations for earnings growth, a small company with a low PE ratio might have very limited prospects. High PE Ratios are dangerous. Find price-to-book by dividing the current price of the stock by the book value per share. Over the long term, the market rewards stocks with low price-to-book ratios and punishes those with high ones. See Table 4. Price-to-cashflow is yet another measure of whether a stock is cheap or not.

Find cashflow by adding income before extraordinary items to depreciation and amortization. The price-to-cashflow ratio is the market value of the stock divided by total cashflow. See Table 5. Price-to-Sales PSR. Price-to-Sales Ratios is a good measure. The price of the company is measured against annual sales instead of earnings.

Investors who buy low PSR stocks buy them because they believe they're getting a bargain. See Table 6. Dividend yields. Find a stock's dividend yield by dividing the indicated annual dividend rate by the current price of the stock. The result is then multiplied by to make it a percentage. See Table 7. The returns of the high yielding large stocks are entirely different from their universe with virtually the same risk.

The 50 highest-yielding stocks beat the universe 91 percent of the time over all rolling year periods. Investors who buy higher yielding stocks should stick to large, better-known companies, which usually have the stronger balance sheets and longer operating histories that make higher dividends possible. Small stocks with high dividend yields may be in that position because their prices have fallen. Far from representing a bargain, their high dividend yields may be an indicator of more trouble to come.

Value Strategy Implications. The forty-three years of data show that the stock market methodically rewards certain types of stocks while punishing others. Stocks with low price-to-book, price-to-cashflow, and price-to-sales ratios dramatically outperform the All Stocks universe.

Just as importantly, those with high price-to-book, price-to-cashflow, and price-to-sales ratios do dramatically worse. Stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios and those with high dividend yields fail to beat All Stocks.

Buying the 50 stocks with the lowest price-to-sales ratios was the only strategy that beat the All Stocks universe on a risk-adjusted basis. The other value strategies came close, with the low price-to-book group matching All Stocks' Sharpe ratio of 47, and the low price-to-cashflow group close behind with a Sharpe ratio of All the Large Stocks value strategies beat the Large Stocks universe on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis, and they did so at least 88 percent of the time over all rolling year periods.

Growth investors want high earnings and sales growth with prospects of more of the same. They usually are not concerned if stock has a high PE ratio, reasoning that a company can grow its way out of short-term overvaluations. Growth investors often award high prices to stocks with rapidly increasing earnings. One-year-earnings-per-share percentage changes are a poor lone factor upon which to base investment decisions. See Table 8. The implication is that buying stocks simply because they have great earnings gains is a losing proposition.

Stocks with the highest 1-year earnings gains almost always have the highest prince-to-earnings ratios, another indicator that poor performance lies ahead. While their returns are slightly higher than those with the best earning changes, there is no compelling theory to justify buying stocks with the worst earnings changes. Best 5-year earnings gains. Some analysts believe that a 1-year change in earnings is meaningless and that one should focus on 5-year growth rates.

Using 5-year earnings gains as the only determinate will lead to disappointing results. See Table 9. Net profit margins are an excellent gauge of a company's operating efficiency and ability to compete successfully with other firms in its field. Thus many believe that firms with high profit margins are better investments, since they are the leaders in their industries. One finds net profit margins by dividing income before extraordinary items A company's income after all expenses but before provisions for dividends by net sales.

This is then multiplied by to get a percentage. See Table History shows using high profit margins as the only determinate in buying a stock will lead to disappointing results. High return on equity ROE is a hallmark of a growth stock. One finds return on equity by dividing common stock equity into income before extraordinary items a company's income after all expenses but before provisions for dividends. One then multiplies them by to express the term as a percentage. As with high profit margins, many believe that a high return on equity ROE is an excellent gauge of how effectively a company invests shareholders' money.

The higher the ROE, the better the company's ability to invest one's money, and presumably, the better an investment the stock will be. ROE provides an excellent example of the importance of looking at the long-term when judging a strategy's effectiveness. An investor just out of college at the end of studying how stocks with high return on equity perform find encouraging evidence. The 50 highest ROE stocks from both the All and Large Stocks universe outperformed their respective benchmarks in the previous decade.

Over the longer period, however, ROE was a poor sole performance indicator. Relative Price Strength. Using strong price momentum as a determinate runs counter to efficient market theories. One cannot use past prices to predict future prices, according to efficient market theory.

Conversely, another school of thought says one should buy stocks that have been most battered by the market. In this application, relative strength and price performers will be used interchangeably. See Table 12 for comparison of 1-year relative strength changes. While All Stocks Best 1-year relative strength had an impressive yield, it had a high standard deviation and therefore high risk that brought the Sharpe ratio to 43, under the All Stocks universe's Large Stocks Best 1-year relative strength had an impressive yield with slightly more risk than the Large Stocks universe: the resultant 49 Sharpe ratio is higher than the Large Stocks universe's Price momentum conveys different information about the prospects of a stock and is a much better indicator than factors such as earnings and growth rates.

Worst 1-year price performance is dramatically outperformed by the market. Instead of focussing on the effects of either a single growth or value factor, using several factors allows one to enhance performance or reduce risk, depending on one's goal. From All Stocks with a PE ratio below 20, take the 50 stocks with the best 1 year price appreciation. Or from All Stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1, take the 50 stocks with the best 1 year price appreciation.

Either multi-factor analysis outperforms All Stocks, and outperforms either of the factors that comprise it i. Price to sales ratio also performs well when joined with relative strength. In this model, Price to Sales ratio is less than 1. And then stocks are selected by top 1-year price appreciation. The return on All Stocks was higher than the return on Large Stocks. However, just cumulating additional factors does not increase the performance: if one took Large Stocks with PE ratios below 20 and positive earnings gains for the year and bought the 50 with the best 1-year price performance, one would actually earn less than if one bought the low PE, high relative strength stocks alone.

The addition of positive earnings gains hurt performance in this instance. More factors do not necessarily mean better performance. Buying stocks with strong 1-year earnings gains and strong relative price strength outperforms the All Stocks universe.

A two-factor model that requires stocks from All Stocks to have 1-year earnings gains exceeding 25 percent and then buys the 50 with the best 1-year price performance also outperforms the All Stocks universe. Other growth variable work better.

Buying the 50 stocks from the All Stocks universe with the best ROE didn't beat the market, but adding a high ROE factor to a relative strength model enhanced returns even more than the earnings gains model. For large stocks, results were less striking: higher yield was compensated by higher risk to yield the same Sharpe ratio for the strategy v. Buying the lower price-to-sales stocks from All Stocks is the best performing single value factor. Dividend yield must exceed the Compustat average for any given year.

This effectively limits one to the upper 20 percent of the database by dividend yield. Price-to-earnings ratios are below the Compustat database average for any given year. Price-to-cashflow ratios are the lowest in the All Socks universe. While the yield of Value Model 1 was not as high as Low price-to-sales, the risk was lower, and the result a higher Sharpe ratio for Value Model 1. The choice of several of the right factors can reduce risk while maintaining similar returns.

The stock's price change in the previous year must be positive Find this by dividing the current year's price by the preceding year's price so the result is greater than 1. This guarantees that none of the stocks' prices decreased in the previous year. The stocks have the lowest price-to-sales ratios in the All Socks universe.

History shows that a portfolio of market-leading stocks that possess attractive value ratios, particularly those with high dividend yields, consistently beat the market at similar levels of risk. A market leading company is a large, well-known company with sales well above the average. It usually also has strong cashflows and large numbers of shares available to the public. These market leading firms are considerably less volatile than the market as a whole.

While high dividend yields alone do not add value to stocks from the All Stocks universe, when combined with large market-leading firms they improve performance dramatically at risk levels that are virtually the same as the market. High PE ratios pulled down even the market's leaders, while low PE ratios help. The most extraordinary thing about this high-yield strategy is that the worst it ever did was a loss of 15 percent.

That's nearly half Large Stocks largest annual loss of This strategy outperformed Large Stocks in 8 of the 11 bear market years, and never had a negative 5-year return. It had only one year period in which it failed to beat Large Stocks, then losing to the group only by a miniscule 0.

This strategy beat Large Stocks in 9 of the 13 years in which the market gains exceeded 25 percent Indeed, in the super bull years of , , and , when Large Stocks gained 40 percent or more, the strategy always did better. This implies that large well-known market-leading companies are much better investments when they have a value characteristic like low PE ratio or low price-to-cashflow ratio, but the best criterion is dividend yield.

The returns from buying the 50 market-leading stocks with the highest dividend yields are so outstanding that this Value Model 3 should serve as a Cornerstone Value Strategy for all portfolios. The reasons are numerous. The strategy sticks to large well-known companies, yet does four times as well as the Large Stocks universe while taking virtually the same risk. It has the highest risk-adjusted return of all strategies examined. The biggest projected loss is The maximum projected gain for the strategy is The strategy does better than Large Stocks in bull and bear markets, leading the market in most bull years and providing a cushion in bear years.

A Cornerstone Growth should complement the Cornerstone Value Value Model 3 strategy: a high risk-adjusted return to justify the increased volatility. Buy the 50 stocks with the best 1-year relative strength in the All Stocks group. Growth Model 1 loses out to the strategy which buys low price-to-sales stocks with the best relative strength.

One is better off ignoring 5-year compound earnings growth rates and profit margins exceeding the Compustat mean and focusing exclusively on stocks that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. Uniting persistence with low price-to-sales results in a strategy that performs slightly better than low price-to-sales alone while reducing risk.

Display the best 1-year price performance in the All Stocks group. One increases the price-to-sales minimum to 1. Growth strategies are less effective with large stocks; one is much better off using the All Stocks universe when pursuing growth strategies. If one can tolerate higher risk, one can beat the market with a strategy like Gorwth Model 3. It's worth noting that the best growth strategy includes a low price-to-sales requirement, traditionally a value factor.

The best time to buy growth stocks is when they are cheap. This strategy will never buy a Netscape or Genetech or Poloroid at times earnings. That why it works so well. It forces one to buy stocks just when the market realizes the companies have been overlooked. The latest CSI suggests it could go lower; but probably that would occur only if a recession unfolds.

I say no and am in the camp that views it as more of a retest of lows. Each time the market has attacked the old lows while sentiment was highly bearish, it led to a sharp short-term rally. My belief is that, with everything looking terrible, the same will happen again. US Economy: Dueling Decades. Nonetheless, assigning subjective probabilities is helpful for showing which of the two seems most likely to us. So, we also reiterated our subjective probabilities for the two scenarios.

The current decade is increasingly looking like the Great Inflation 2. Energy prices are soaring partly as a result of a geopolitical crisis. Another similarity between then and now is soaring food prices Fig. During the s, there was a wage-price-rent spiral. Soaring food and energy prices boosted wages through cost-of-living-adjustments COLAs in labor union contracts. Rapidly rising wages caused other prices and rents to rise quickly as well Fig.

This time, the wage-price-rent spiral seems to be spinning even faster even though COLAs no longer exist. Perhaps the most important similarity between the s and recent events is the lame response of the Fed to the wage-price-rent spiral. The Fed was well behind the inflation curve during most of the s and is now once again Fig.

By maintaining ultra-easy monetary policies through the start of this year, the Fed succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate to a recent low of 3. Following the lockdown recession of , home prices soared as urban renters scrambled to become homeowners in the suburbs.

The Fed remained focused on inclusive maximum employment, which meant that mortgage rates remained near record lows during and As a result, the median price of a single-family existing home soared The combination of record home prices and rising mortgage rates clobbered housing affordability. That led to lots of upward pressure on rents. During the s, rent inflation was mostly driven by wage inflation.

The Great Inflation of the s actually started during the second half of the s. The same can be said about his Great Society initiative. A result of this guns-and-butter approach to fiscal policy was higher inflation. President Richard Nixon continued that approach in the early s and exacerbated inflation by closing the gold window on August 15, , which caused the dollar to depreciate significantly.

The weaker dollar boosted commodity prices and caused OPEC to drive oil prices higher during the s. This time, several rounds of fiscal stimulus programs combined with ultra-accommodative monetary policies caused a demand shock that overwhelmed supplies, unleashing the current bout of inflation. The programs presumably were aimed at offsetting the negative impact of the pandemic on workers. Most importantly, productivity growth collapsed during the s.

It has been trending higher since the end of —when it was 0. Labor growth was high during the s around 2. This time, it is much weaker around 0. We believe that chronic labor shortages will persist, forcing businesses to boost their productivity. It is likely to do so relatively quickly. Of course, for the here and now, it sure looks and feels like a repeat of the s. The risk is that woke fiscal policies will continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures.

In recent weeks, he has been pleading with foreign oil producers to export more of it. Under Biden, the Securities and Exchange Commission is moving to impose a slew of costly environmental reporting requirements on American corporations. Of course, a prolonged war in Ukraine could put further upward pressure on energy and food prices and could cause a recession in Europe.

China continues to struggle with Covid lockdowns. One more thing to worry about: The contract between over 22, West Coast dockworkers and the Pacific Maritime Association is set to expire in three weeks. Inflation is no longer transitory or persistent. It is protracted. The CPI inflation rate has yet to peak because rapidly rising energy prices continue to put upward pressure on the headline rate directly and on the core rate indirectly, by boosting energy-related costs like transportation.

The headline CPI was up 8. The 3-month annualized rate was The core CPI was up 6. The CPI food category rose The CPI for durable goods seems to have peaked at It was down to The latest 3-month annualized inflation rate was Housing-related durable goods prices seem to be cooling along with housing activity. In the services sector, among the hottest price jumps over the past three months, at annual rates, have been logged by lodging away from home They are likely to moderate as pent-up demand for these services abates.

Of course, the outlook for airline fares also depends on the cost of jet fuel. As discussed above, the upward pressure on rent inflation is likely to persist. Rent-of-shelter inflation remained high at 5. Tenant rent was up 5. She publicly claimed that President Nixon must have been involved in the scandal. That forced her husband to choose sides, and he chose Nixon.

Their marriage fell apart as the administration sought to silence her by discrediting her as a drunk and crazy person. Julia Roberts shows off her acting skills as Martha Mitchell. Sean Penn is also good as her husband. Best of all is Shea Whigham who plays G. Executive Summary: President Biden says he wants to bring down gas and other energy prices. But his actions on the margin have been ineffectual so far. We examine which industries have seen estimates drop the most.

In our view, President Biden would be better served by encouraging oil companies to increase their production more quickly. It might not go over well with the environmental crowd, but the average Jane and Joe Citizen would appreciate it. Oil industry executives may talk a lot about going green; but the reality is that when the price of oil is high, they pump more, and when the price of oil is low, they pump less.

Over the next four years, oil prices recovered, and production did too. The fracking miracle sent US production up to It hit The number of oil drilling rigs, which fell to a low of in August , has gradually increased to a recent Fig. US producers have slowly been spending more.

President Biden has taken a number of steps to increase the amount of oil in the market but with little success so far. For example, Biden has tried to open talks with Iran and Venezuela, two countries that have spare capacity but are prevented from exporting to the US because of sanctions. The sanctions forced American oil companies to stop drilling in the country and scared away bankers and customers, according to an October 7, NYT article.

But the Biden administration may be trying to soften relations. After administration officials visited Caracas in March, two American prisoners were released, leaving eight still imprisoned in the country. In May, the Biden administration said it would permit discussions between the Maduro government and Chevron about the possibility of future work if the government returns to negotiations with the opposition in hopes of having a free and fair election in In addition, sanctions on Carlos Eric Malpica, a former Venezuelan state oil official and nephew of the First Lady, were lifted, according to a Venezuelan opposition official cited in a May 17 NYT article.

Iran wants the guards off the list before it complies with the nuclear deal. As a presidential candidate, Biden said he would make Saudi Arabia a pariah nation and punish the country for the role that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The Saudis want more equipment, including the Patriot anti-missile systems and new security guarantees. The Biden administration has been successful at pressuring the Saudis to increase production. In another effort to lower energy prices, President Biden ordered the release of one million barrels of oil a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for six months.

The market yawned, and oil prices headed higher. Now the Biden administration is considering imposing an oil and gas windfall tax on industry profits to fund a subsidy for American consumers who struggle to buy energy, a June 4 Oilprice. It would apply to oil both produced domestically and imported. In our view, the administration and the American people would be better served if Biden were to set aside his environmental priorities for now, given the economic urgency, and encourage US producers to spend more on exploration and development and open their taps wider.

The administration could also provide incentives for oil and gas players to build new or expand existing refineries. US refinery capacity utilization has jumped up to He could ask them how much they plan to increase capital spending and production this year and praise them for helping the nation—with news cameras rolling, of course.

Shortly after becoming president, Biden signed an executive order to pause the issuing of new leases on federal land and water, a move that has since been debated in the courts. Last month, he canceled oil drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. If Biden were to encourage and incent more domestic oil production, it would certainly catch the industry by surprise. My personal view is that there will never be another refinery built in the United States. Biden should give him a call. Consumer Discretionary: Trimming Beginning.

Tech pros have come up with some interesting ways to both help the environment and keep energy usage and bills down. Starting at the top, owners in warm climates might consider a cool roof. Europe is pushing residents to switch to electric heat pumps from gas-fired heaters as winter approaches. An alternative to heat pumps involves tapping into the heat generated by data centers.

Espoo, a town in southern Finland, will use the excess heat generated by a data center Microsoft is building, a June 5 WSJ article reported. Likewise, Viborg, Denmark will use heat from an Apple data center. While shades and curtains still work to block out heat and cold, techies have developed a reflective film that attaches to windows and reduces the amount of incoming heat while retaining the outgoing view.

But they can cause double-paned windows to fog and may void window warranties. It has been persistent. The question now is whether it is protracted or not. On a dimmer note, that positive should be partially offset by the unabated climb of prices for gasoline, groceries, and rent. It is unlikely that investors will be released from their fear of inflation even if it continues to show more signs of peaking.

A year ago, inflation was widely viewed as transitory. By the end of last year, it was widely viewed as a persistent problem. Now it is widely viewed as a protracted one. I did too, but I got over it. President Joe Biden also recently acknowledged that inflation is a more protracted problem and a greater political risk to his administration and the Democratic Party than he and his advisors previously had thought.

He then took credit for the strong economic recovery since the lockdown recession of He then listed three parts to what I call his whip-inflation-now WIN plan:. To be fair, income was still boosted a year ago by government support payments.

However, there is likely to be little relief in the costs of gasoline, groceries, and rent. So far this year, the headline CPI inflation rate peaked at 8. It was down to 8. The core CPI inflation rate peaked at 6. It was down to 6. The former peaked at 8.

Debbie and I continue to expect that rapidly moderating consumer durable goods inflation will be partially offset by rising prices of gasoline, groceries, and rent. Here is what we know so far about some of these items:. The Manheim Index for wholesale used-vehicle prices on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis increased 0. Given the unfolding housing recession, the price rises of housing-related durable goods should continue to moderate, including those for household major appliances, which remained high in April at Economists often exclude these two categories from the CPI because they are very volatile.

However, in an inflationary environment, they can have an outsized impact on inflationary expectations since most people have to eat and drive somewhere every day. The price of a gallon of gasoline is the most widely publicized price in our country.

During April, the CPI for commodities excluding food and energy rose rose 9. Food inflation was 9. Energy inflation was On a yearly percent change basis, it almost perfectly tracks the CPI for gasoline on the same basis Fig. The weekly price was up Rent of primary residence a. They track one another closely since OER is based on survey data asking a sample of homeowners to estimate the rent they would have to pay to live in their homes Fig.

The CPI tenant rent is based on all outstanding leases, not just new leases. New lease rents will show up in the CPI over the coming months depending on the renewal terms of those leases. We have data compiled by Zillow on new leases since January Fig. The new lease rental rate soared to Rent inflation in the CPI has only one way to go for the foreseeable future: higher!

Of course, plenty of other components of CPI services might remain troublesome for at least another few months. Input price pressures, already heightened by the pandemic, are spilling over into consumer prices and straining consumer confidence.

These are likely to prevent Europe from succumbing to a recession. Nevertheless, European stocks have taken such a beating that now may be the time to overweight them in portfolios with long-term investment horizons. After all, the war will end at some point, global supply chains eventually will find ways to work around the shortages, and the world is learning to live with the virus.

It helps that China, an important trade partner to Europe, is reopening once again. Even the ECB expects economic conditions to normalize by So far, the latest indicators are mixed but tilted to the downside:. Eurozone real GDP expanded 0. The economy continues to face headwinds from supply bottlenecks, pandemic restrictions, and higher energy prices. Strain from the neighboring war pressured growth during Q, with Europe eking out a mere 0. The final estimate for Q1 real GDP was released this morning, after we went to press.

Despite relaxed Covid restrictions, lower growth over the near term could be quite possible owing to pressure on household spending as energy prices rise owing to the war. Two tailwinds could continue to boost consumer spending despite inflationary pressures on households. Many Europeans stashed away cash as they cut back on dining out and travel and other Covid-restricted activities.

Low-income households may be particularly squeezed as inflation rises; but in their favor is a strong labor market. Exceptional energy price shocks from the war in Ukraine suggest that headline inflation will remain very high in the coming months. Presumably, however, these pressures should ease over the longer term as the war-related, energy-related, and supply-chain challenges abate. The Eurozone CPI soared 8.

The energy price component soared by However, that was a small breather from the latest record high during March of Excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, the CPI also advanced at a record pace, 3. To combat inflation, the ECB strongly indicated at the end of May that it would likely reverse course and hike interest rates by mid-year.

Unemployment in the Eurozone, now at 6. European governments supplemented labor costs for employers and wages for employees. The volume of Eurozone retail sales held onto its pre-pandemic uptrend, albeit barely, through April Fig.

Excluding autos, retail sales rebounded in April by 4. One of the weakest economic indicators in Europe is the month sum of German passenger car production Fig. Two other reasons: Germany is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Chinese supply chains, which have broken down most recently owing to major authoritarian shutdowns amid a new Covid wave.

It rebounded 6. Executive Summary: Jamie Dimon spooked the financial markets last week with his forecast of an economic hurricane headed straight for us. What matters is their magnitude, which Dimon admits is unknown. That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way. He should know better than anyone if a storm is coming since he can have a tremendous impact on the financial weather. After all, he is the CEO of the largest bank in America. Here is more on these three issues and what he is doing about them:.

As we observed in our June 5 QuickTakes , the Fed is starting to reduce its balance sheet by running off maturing securities. In addition, he is anticipating much more volatility in the bond market. They are spending it. So what else is Dimon doing to prepare his bank for these shocks?

That would help the bank manage its capital requirements under international rules, potentially helping it absorb a surge in bad loans. I asked two of my favorite short-term weather watchers in the equity market for their assessment of the likelihood of an impending storm. They believe that the recent rebound in stock prices might continue for a while longer. Michael Brush observes that insiders are back to neutral, though on the edge of bullishness. It was initially intended to restore the size of the balance sheet back to where it had been before the GFC.

The Fed terminated QT1 well ahead of normalizing its balance sheet as a result of illiquidity problems in the repo market in late and the pandemic in early This time, no one knows how long QT2 will last. Fed officials undoubtedly have run their econometric model to come up with some estimates. QT2 undoubtedly will lower the federal-funds-rate endpoint of this tightening cycle. But what will that point be?

Dimon anticipates that QT2 will lead to more volatility in the bond market, with yields mostly moving higher because the supply of bonds will exceed demand. The good news is that forecasting the bond market by projecting the supply of and demand for bonds is a very inexact science.

Oh and by the way, federal tax receipts are soaring, while outlays are falling Fig. Dimon suggested that he is also worried that the combination of hikes in the federal funds rate and balance-sheet reductions will burst speculative bubbles with adverse consequences for the financial system and the economy.

Over the past 24 months through April, the month average of the median existing single-family home price has increased However, they could have a negative wealth effect on consumer spending. The jury is out on whether the stock market has discounted QT2. The minutes of the December meeting of the FOMC, released on January 5 of this year, spooked investors because it strongly suggested that the Fed was on course to implement QT2 by the middle of this year. Dimon blamed the Ukraine war for driving up commodity prices.

In our opinion, a longer lasting problem is that climate and environment activists are succeeding in reducing the incentives to find, produce, and distribute energy and industrial commodities. The resulting underinvestment in key commodity markets could push commodity prices still higher, boosting both inflation and the risk of a recession caused by shortages. We discussed this problem for the energy sector in the June 1 Morning Briefing. The difference this time is that soaring fossil fuel prices are the intended consequences of the energy policies of the current administration.

During April, consumer spending on gasoline and other motor fuels accounted for just 2. Meanwhile, as Dimon observed last Wednesday, consumers seem to be pivoting from spending on goods to spending on services. Debbie and I frequently have opined this year that if a recession is imminent, it will be the most widely anticipated downturn in American economic history.

While Dimon is contributing to that chatter, he is also in a position to make that happen. Meanwhile, both commercial and industrial bank loans and revolving credit continue to expand Fig. In addition, allowances for losses at all commercial banks have been declining since mid- Fig. Or it may resolve in a much more sickening fashion if a recession sends earnings expectations—and valuations—hurtling downward.

Strategy: Is the Valuation Correction Over? My hiking endurance was limited by a touch of altitude sickness. The park is over 7, feet above sea level. My wife had no problems with the altitude. On the other hand, I felt fine when we took a tram 10, feet above sea level at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Thursday, while my wife experienced a bit of discomfort that high up.

We both felt fine on Saturday at the Grand Tetons National Park, which is more than 6, feet above sea level. It is down In an earnings recession scenario, there would also be more downside in store for the valuation multiple. It closed at They both declined and converged through May, with the former down to Both are relatively high even in a no-recession scenario given that that Fed tightening cycle has a ways to go.

It closed at 2. Both have been rising to new highs since March 4, A recession would force industry analysts to slash their revenues estimates. Their earnings estimates would fall even faster since their profit margin assumptions would have to be reduced significantly in a recession scenario. So a recession is still not our base case. In a recession scenario, one or both of those ranges would be much lower. In a recession scenario, one or both would be falling.

Subtracting While inflation has surged over the past year toward the high rates recorded back then, the unemployment rate remains near its historical record lows Fig. If a recession does occur, industry analysts scramble to cut their earnings estimates and investors whack the valuation multiple even lower. Here are the latest ones:. Our EIP is up 9. Notwithstanding the lackluster gains in real personal income, real consumer spending saar rose 3.

Consumers seem to be pivoting from spending on goods to spending on services. Business spending is also holding up quite well. The regional business surveys conducted by five district Federal Reserve Banks have been showing some slowing in current and future capital spending but suggest that such activity continues to grow Fig. However, its employment index was weak, and its new orders index has been weakening. The comparable averages of the regional business surveys conducted by the Fed district banks also showed some weakness for overall business activity and new orders, while their employment indexes remained strong.

Currently, among the most recessionary indicators are housing-related ones. Mortgage applications for home purchases have been tumbling since the start of this year as the combination of record-high home prices and surging mortgage rates has depressed housing affordability and demand Fig. Also depressed is the Consumer Sentiment Index CSI , which is very sensitive to inflationary pressures, especially rising gasoline prices Fig.

The CSI dropped to Average hourly earnings for all workers rose 5. But the 3-month annualized pace was 4. Executive Summary: Ever wonder why the US is still dependent on oil imports even though fracking has boosted the amount of oil produced domestically to about the same as that consumed?

And with that being the case, why does the US bother exporting oil anyway? The answers involve both a mismatch between the kind of oil America produces and consumes as well as a year-old shipping law that has outlived its usefulness. Eliminating the Jones Act could not only help the US oil industry but could also revive US shipping and improve supply chains. Energy: Politics at Sea. The advent of fracking and the surge in US oil production over the past decade is truly an American success story.

US oil production was as low as 7. Over the same period, consumption has risen and fallen marginally but is relatively unchanged. The US consumed Even though the US produces almost the same amount of petroleum as it consumes, the country has not ended its dependence on oil imports. The US imported 8. And despite this reliance on oil imports, the US still exported 8. That trend has continued this year.

The US exported 9. So the US has been exporting 1. The answer to both lies in US refining capacity and a year-old shipping law. The increase in US oil production has mainly been of light crude oil. However, most US refiners use heavy crude oil. So the US is exporting light crude oil and importing heavier crude oil. US production of heavy crude API gravity of Conversely, US imports of light sweet and sour crude oil has fallen Meanwhile, imports of heavy sweet and sour crude oil fell only 3.

Over many years, US refiners have spent heavily to build facilities to refine heavy crude. Doing so made sense because heavy crude typically can be bought at a discount to light crude and used to produce a variety of products, like chemicals, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes and materials for roads and roofs. Some of the heavy crude that the US imports may be refined and exported.

US refiners always have been allowed to export their products, but US crude producers have been allowed to do so only since , when an export ban dating back to was lifted. The administration instead should be asking how it can encourage the expansion of US light crude oil refining capacity. The reason dates back to World War I, when the US used foreign-flagged vessels to transport some of the troops and goods needed to fight in Europe.

The dependence on foreign ships was seen as a weakness that legislators addressed with The Merchant Marine Act of The goal was to bolster the US merchant fleet and industry so that it would be robust enough to help defend the country in times of war.

While Jones supported the bill based on its benefits for US defense, his state benefitted when two Canadian shippers no longer could transport goods to Alaska, giving the market to two shipping companies from Seattle. Defenders of the act—maritime unions, US shipping companies and shipbuilders, and those concerned about national defense—believe the rationale for supporting the Jones Act in remains valid today.

The importance of having US-sourced goods and trained personnel was driven home when the US was unable to quickly produce personal protective equipment when needed at the start of the Covid pandemic. However, many others, particularly shippers of products within the US, disagree. Many legislators from Alaska and Hawaii support repealing the act because their states import a lot by ship, which the act makes more expensive.

The Cato Institute believes the act fails to achieve its goal, increases costs in the economy, and should be eliminated. A report by the libertarian think tank notes that the Jones Act has limited the growth of domestic shipping. Nine of every 10 commercial vessels produced in US shipyards since have been barges or tugboats—not ocean-going vessels, which the military would lean on during a war.

The number of ships that could be used, i. Companies, ships, and jobs have moved overseas, often lured by less expensive options. Likewise, a US crew is paid far better than foreign sailors. The higher cost involved with a Jones Act ship gets passed on to consumers. The impact is also felt by companies providing other modes of transportation.

Because shipping by sea is so expensive, companies opt instead to ship products via railroad or trucks. Resultant higher demand for those modes of transportation presumably increases their prices, and truck traffic degrades roads and generates pollution. The act has resulted in some odd and unexpected consequences.

Likewise, airlines operating in Puerto Rico typically import jet fuel from foreign countries instead of buying it from US Gulf refiners. This brings us back to why the US is importing fuel when its production levels have increased so sharply. Avoiding the extra cost of transportation via Jones Act ships is also the reason that New England imports gasoline from overseas instead of from the Gulf of Mexico.

Eliminating the Jones Act could potentially help our oil industry while also ironing out some of the kinks in our supply chain. And with the shackles off, the US shipping industry might just revive. Technology: High-Performance Computing. HPC is being used in research labs to develop new medicines, understand evolution, track storms, and create new materials. Creators are also using it to edit films and create special effects. The oil and gas industry harnesses HPC to better target where to drill and boost production.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning programs use HPC, as do financial pros looking to identify real-time stock trends or automate trading. Either way, the need for computing power—and powerful chips and software—has created a race among some of the top players including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. Nvidia executives spent much of their fiscal Q1 ended May 1 conference call talking about HPC, a far more pleasant subject than the gaming market, which has slowed overseas this quarter. Investors have sold Nvidia shares on fears that fewer of its chips will be used by high-end gamers and by crypto-miners.

Both activities surged in recent years during Covid lockdowns. Nvidia shares have fallen The damage is even greater, a drop of Their fears proved warranted. Nvidia blamed softness in Europe on the Ukraine war and in China on Covid lockdowns. Nvidia and the gaming segment contributed If that revenue estimate is on target, it would result in a While Nvidia is known for high-performance computer gaming chips, it also provides chips for servers.

AI is driving much of the business, boosted by the development of transformer-based models. A transformer model is a neural network that learns context and meaning by tracking relationships in data. It allows systems to learn without the need for a human to label the data, which is costly and time consuming.

First described in a paper by Google, the models are driving major advances in AI. Nvidia explains in a March 25 blog post that transformers are translating text and speech in near real time, speeding drug design by unlocking the mysteries of DNA and amino acids, detecting trends and anomalies to prevent fraud, streamlining manufacturing, making online recommendations, and improving healthcare.

Much of the transformer-driven AI requires hefty computing power and occurs in the cloud, which means more demand for the chips that Nvidia produces. Huang believes AI systems on the physical edge and imbedded in robotics will be the next major computing segment. For example, Amazon is using Omniverse to create digital twins of its warehouses, so it can improve their design and train intelligent robots, explained Kress. Third-party software developers are using Omniverse software and tools in various areas including robotics, industrial automation, and 3D design, Kress explained.

Its earnings are targeted to grow At this level, the valuation looks a lot more attractive than it has been in years, presuming that earnings come in near expectations. Such a crude plan is bound to have unintended consequences that put the overall economy at risk.

Notably, the past six pre-pandemic recessions coincided with rapidly rising oil prices. Amid economic woes, some self-inflicted, China is losing its foreign investors. Energy: Traumatic Transition. The goal is to drive up the prices of fossil fuels by imposing government regulations to restrict their supply.

They are too expensive. They take too long to charge. The costs of the commodities necessary to produce EVs, and especially their batteries, are soaring. Renewable sources of energy are unreliable and have lots of adverse environmental impacts. The geopolitical consequences of soaring fossil fuel prices are turning out to be nightmarish. Joe Biden welcomes the current policy-engineered crisis. Now consider the following related developments:. Each of the six past recessions prior to the pandemic was associated with either soaring or at least rapidly rising oil prices Fig.

The difference this time is that soaring fossil fuel prices are the intended consequences of the energy policies of the current administration Fig. The impact of those policies can be seen in US crude oil field production, which was The US oil rig count has recovered from its trough in but remained relatively low at during the May 27 week Fig.

US operable crude oil distillation capacity was down to Capacity is the lowest since As the industry reduces capital spending, fossil fuel prices are rising as demand outstrips supply. As a result, the fossil fuel companies are generating huge profits and cash flow that are benefitting their shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products totaled 1. Natural gas prices are also soaring in the US Fig. They are doing so even as consumption of natural gas has been relatively flat since Fig. The problem is that US exports of natural gas have been soaring in recent years Fig.

China Economy: Losing Battles. Additionally, China faces mounting geopolitical risks as the leadership considers an invasion of Taiwan and external policy risks as it maintains easy monetary policy while other global central banks tighten, threatening capital outflows.

Is China even investible? Many foreign Chinese market participants have moved their assets elsewhere, depressing asset prices and the local currency. Over the three months, foreign investors reduced their holdings by about Similarly, foreign equity investors sold a net China has tightened its capital controls ever since a rush for the exits occurred during Reuters did report that foreign inflows rose yesterday ahead of Covid restrictions easing.

China has continued to loosen monetary policy while other major global central banks—including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank—tighten. At the same time, investors are seeking higher risk premiums for Chinese assets given perceived heightened geopolitical risks for the region. Chinese central bankers are caught between the risk of further incenting capital flight and the risk that households and businesses remain wary of taking on new loans. In an unexpected policy move last Friday, May 20, the PBOC cut its benchmark rate for loans of five years or more to 4.

The central bank kept its rates on medium-term loans for commercial banks and one-year loans unchanged. New bank loans to businesses and households fell in April to about one-fifth of the amount extended in March, the article noted. Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, has been held on lockdown for the past two months along with full or partial Covid closures across other Chinese cities. Reportedly, the Shanghai lockdown will be lifted today, but there is no telling what closures could happen again soon, as China remains committed to its zero-Covid strategy.

Industrial production fell 2. Retail sales fell Property values dropped For more, see our Country Briefing: China. Declining domestic consumption is a drag on sales of multinationals in China too. But that was still a contraction, with a reading below 50 for the third month in a row.

The non-manufacturing PMI continued to plummet, sinking to One of those efforts may be to use digital yuan handouts to stimulate the broader economy, as some areas in China have done. The country is still striving to hit its GDP growth target of 5. The article added that infrastructure investment had increased 8.

Not unlike Russia see here and here , China is doing a banner job at whitewashing its motives and human rights atrocities via its domestic state-controlled media and even beyond its borders through its widespread state-controlled Internet content. Signaling that China is prepared to insulate itself for the cause, a directive from CCP leaders in March said that the government would block promotions for senior officials if they, their spouses, or their children hold significant assets abroad, reported the WSJ.

The Chinese government is seeking to protect itself from vulnerability to sanctions like those recently aimed at Russian oligarchs. To comply, senior Chinese officials recently have sold assets in foreign holdings. Those who play with fire will certainly burn themselves. Biden followed up his Asian tour with a May 27 speech to Navy graduates, reported Reuters.

Soon Americans may not be able to invest in some Chinese companies on US exchanges even if they wanted to, as mass delisting of Chinese firms could take place in the coming year, reported the WSJ. To avoid this fate, Beijing may have just a few weeks left to come to an agreement with US regulators.

Because of a bill passed in the House and the Senate that would shorten deadlines requiring noncompliant Chinese firms to do so, Chinese companies could be delisted starting in March as annual reports are published. YRI Tuesday Webcast. View Dr. Investors concluded that consumers were cutting back on spending and that corporate profits were starting to get squeezed.

At that level, it was down The fun continued on Friday with a 2. Investors concluded that the various earnings reports from retailers released over the past several days along with the BEA report suggested that their knee-jerk reaction to the Target news was too pessimistic, causing an unwarranted jump to conclusions about both consumer spending and profit margins. The conventional wisdom now seems to be more nuanced.

Consumers are having to spend more on gasoline and groceries, which might be forcing some of them to cut spending on discretionary consumer goods. However, some of the weakness in spending on such merchandise may also reflect the satiation of lots of pent-up demand for them. The good news is that weakening demand for discretionary consumer durables may be putting some downward pressure on their prices.

In addition, the BEA data showed that consumer spending on services continued to rise and that consumers dipped into their savings to offset weakness in their real incomes. We examine the BEA data on consumer spending and inflation below. You need only to forecast two variables, i. Getting them right is the hard part. Getting the valuation multiple right is especially hard.

Behold the following:. On Friday, it was down only 7. Now, behold this …. It plunged to a low of It then soared to peak at This valuation multiple lost some ground through the end of But it was still historically high at Increasingly hawkish pronouncements from Fed officials since the start of this year led to a jump in the year US Treasury bond yield, which peaked at 3. Joe and I recently expected that Apparently, I hope that my wife and I will be as successful at dodging bears as our backyard rabbit is at dodging our dogs when we visit Yellowstone National Park this week!

The MegaCap-8 stocks currently account for Following the end of the lockdowns, they added around 2. As a result, their profit margins are remaining steady at a record high, according to the analysts. The time weighting makes a useful proxy for expected results over the next 52 weeks. While some companies provided cautious guidance about the rest of this year during their Q1 earnings reporting calls, plenty issued guidance that was upbeat.

The tricky part is projecting the valuation multiple. Under the circumstances i. Here are the beauty contestants—i. You be the judge. To clear up any confusion, we should note that the projections above do not depend on our own forecasts for earnings in and Of course, there are lots of other methods for predicting the stock market, especially on a short-term basis.

I particularly enjoy monitoring the trading views of Joe Feshbach and Michael Brush. Joe thinks the index has a chance of continuing to surprise on the upside, retesting the prior area of failure at Michael is one of the top analysts of insider-buying activity for trading purposes. On Thursday morning of last week, he observed that Wednesday was the best day of such activity of the prior eight business days. Increasing the difficulty of predicting the stock market this year have been rising concerns about a recession.

But valuation multiples plunge along with earnings during recessions even if inflation and interest rates are falling. As noted above, the key earnings variable for us in the stock market equation i. Their cycles are very similar, for sure. Forward earnings growth peaked at The M-PMI hit a recent cyclical peak of Both have declined in lockstep since their peaks. The former dropped from a cyclical high of The latest reads of these two macro variables are consistent with a stock market that is no higher than it was a year ago, i.

However, consumers have tapped into the excess personal savings they accumulated during and to boost their spending. And if labor market conditions start to weaken soon, they might run out of excess savings at a particularly unfortunate time. Inflation-adjusted personal income is down 3. Excluding government social benefits to persons, it is up but just by 2. During April, inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.

The slowdown in spending on goods has been offset by a pickup in spending on services, with the former down 2. By the way, real consumer spending growth was revised up from 2. Weekly initial unemployment claims bottomed at a recent low of , during the March 19 week, which was the lowest since late Fig. They rose to , during the May 21 week. The labor market remains hot, but it may also be starting to show signs of cooling off.

Debbie and I continue to expect that the headline PCED inflation rate will moderate from its recent peak of 6. It was 6. We are reasonably confident that much of that decline will be attributable to durable goods inflation. We are also reasonably confident that some of that improvement will be offset by rising rent inflation. We expect food and energy prices to moderate, but we have much less confidence in that outlook.

Again, we are quite sure that the PCED inflation rate for consumer durable goods peaked at Used car prices led on the way up and now are leading on the way down. But we also expect to see prices weaken for appliances and furniture as housing activity continues to slow.

The inflation rate for core nondurable goods excluding food and energy edged down to 3. The core PCED services inflation rate was 4. Both have been relatively stable around these rates since late last year. Both are likely to move higher in coming months led by rent inflation. They were both up 4. The 3-month for the former and latter were 6.

The wild cards are the volatile food and energy components of the PCED. They were up And more disturbing is that their 3-month rates were Franklin was a self-taught entrepreneur who made revolutionary contributions in science, philosophy, politics, and diplomacy. Also interesting is to see how Franklin was transformed from an Englishman into an American. He excelled at creating fake news to promote the cause of the American revolutionaries.

His big failing was as a husband and a father. He was too busy being a Founding Father. Executive Summary: Spending on stuff was so yesterday. Long-cooped-up consumers now want to spend on experiences and have fun! Not even stratospheric gasoline pump prices will keep them home this holiday weekend. Today, Jackie examines the factors driving energy prices skyward. Specifically, high-end Nordstrom made out far better last quarter than did retailers to the masses. Energy: Americans Hit the Road.

AAA expects Another 3. Spending on stuff is out, while spending on experiences and services is in. The surge is even more dramatic excluding motor vehicles and parts spending from durable goods spending Fig. Conversely, spending on services has remained below its pre-pandemic levels as of the latest available data, for March Fig.

Now it looks like consumers are ready to make up for lost time this summer even if it means spending more at the pump and in the air. Unfortunately, the Ukraine war and slim supplies at home are conspiring to make our road trips a lot more expensive. Spending on gas in March represented 2. US crude oil production is up sharply from the low of 4. Meanwhile, domestic demand has rebounded, and exports of crude oil and petroleum products has exceeded imports by 1.

Strong demand and light supply have led to tight inventory levels. The US has US stock of finished motor gasoline is lower today than it has been over the past three years at this time of year. There are And the administration has announced plans to release 1 mbd from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for six months. However, the Biden administration has also made some moves that will reduce US production in the future. It suspended oil leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska; it canceled plans to auction drilling rights in two areas in the Gulf of Mexico and one off the coast of Alaska; and it restored the National Environmental Policy Act, which imposes stricter environmental standards for new pipelines and other construction projects.

Meanwhile, US oil and gas companies have opted to return excess cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks instead of using it to sharply increase their drilling. The US oil and gas rig count is , up from its Covid low of in August but below the high of 1, and even further below the high of 2, Fig. Executive compensation, once based on production targets, now focuses on profitability, cost control, and returning cash to shareholders, a May 23 WSJ article reported.

The company plans to boost oil production capacity from 12mbd today to 13mbd by The country is producing Perhaps the Saudis are reticent to help because they can see the 62 million barrels of Russian crude oil in ships at sea looking for a home.

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While stock investing resources are abundant online, finding quality guides to learn about dividend investing proves to be much more […]. And gaining access to all of this only takes minutes. Plus, if you join today, you'll also receive 4 FREE special bonuses:.

If your income investments aren't paying the dividends you need today, then take advantage of the industry's most powerful income investing resource, DividendInvestor. These features include:. Ticker Symbol Lookup. Dividend Investing Tools DividendInvestor. We also provide our proprietary Allstar Ranking for each stock which is based upon a variety of factors most importantly the size, duration, growth rate and quality of its dividend payments.

Dividend Dates and Dividend Calendar Here's where you can find out when stocks are announcing and paying their dividends. This is important if you investing using any kind of dividend capture investing system. Dividend Investor provides a list of all the stocks that are going to be issuing their dividend in a particular date range.

This information is available on screen with a variety of ways to sort and can be downloaded to excel. Dividend Screener The dividend screening tools allows users to filter and sort stocks based upon a variety of dividend related criteria like market cap, PE ratio, dividend yield, dividend growth rate, dividend frequency, dividend payout ratio, debt to equity ratio, historic return on investment, number of consecutive dividend increases, and number of years dividend has been paid for.

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Monthly Dividend Directory - The web's top monthly dividend paying stock list. James B. Cloonan founded the AAII in to provide investment information to ordinary people. To that end, the AAII provides many tools for investors, including model portfolios, investing ideas, reports, customized screening, market information, articles, data, and education.

A major focus at AAII is educating professionals and others about value investing and wealth management. I think one obvious goal of AAII is to offer the wealth management tools normally only available to high net worth individuals to the middle class. To that end, many of the digital tools the AAII offers are wealth management mechanisms.

Those tools include portfolios, stock and fund analyzers, and screeners. The main product the AAII offers investors is information. The AAII membership gives subscribers access to a wide variety of information and digital products. The AAII information products are portfolios, news, and advice.

The AAII delivers most of those products digitally through its website and app. Other products include classes, videos, and advice. For example, the March issue contained two articles on bond ratings. There are also articles on insights, ETFs, dividends, and portfolios. The AAII website offers daily market news, including articles and market summaries. Go Pro Now.

The great advantage to the AAII is that it provides many investor tools without requiring users to buy any investments. The screens and screeners are computer screens that offer specific data about stocks. The screeners can show an investor if a stock meets his or her criteria.

The My Stocks and My Screens allow investors to monitor customized lists of stocks. The system is the A to F grades, with A being the best and F the worst. Screen Power Rankings rank stocks by various criteria, including guru strategies. They designed the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio to offer maximum gains from investments without a significant time or work commitment.

The portfolios are one of the most people-focused features at AAII because they simplify investing. One of the biggest advantages to AAII is education and community events. The Webinars are video classes about specific aspects of investing, such as dividends. The podcasts appear to be audio versions of the Webinars. They have canceled all local chapter AAII meetings because of coronavirus. Instead, they are offering chapter webinars. The emphasis is on person-to-person outreach to individual investors.

The Education groups offer investor education. The Special Interest Groups focus on specific aspects of investing, such as dividends or value investing. I think the IEG curriculum is probably a simpler version of the Webinar content. For what it offers, AAII is incredible value for money. There is a day trial membership available for those curious about AAII.

They claim the day trial membership is risk-free. Gift memberships are available. However, the website does not reveal the price of the gift memberships. The AAII offers all of its resources to all members. This AAII review discovers membership might be worth it if you seek curated stock portfolios or beginner education in stock market investing.

Advanced investors seeking to develop specific technical trading strategies should look elsewhere. A school teacher or a doctor who wants to start investing or learn how the markets work , for example. People who have never read financial news or studied the stock markets or traded stocks could benefit from the AAII.

That could include older individuals or people who do not work in offices—for example, contractors or mechanics.

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